baseballfromrow5

I printed out my tickets for this weekend – Yankees at Phillies and Tigers at Yankees — so it is time to put on a serious baseball cap again and settle in for another year. My theme for the today is that the Marlins are not as good a team as they say they are.

Spring training optimism aside, I do not project them in the post season. Baseball is played up the middle from catcher through center field, including the 2d baseman and the shortstop. The Marlins are weaker, rather than stronger, up the middle.

Catcher: John Buck ‘s hitting skills are in decline. His batting average is sub .250 and he is not achieved the 20-home run season that brought him to Miami from Toronto.

2d Base: Omar Infante had a great, but sub .300 year last year but now he is a year older and step slower. He is still rated as above-average fielder and he will not contribute many errors to a historically error-prone team. What remains to be learned is how he will pair up with his new shortstop. Infante knows how to hit them where they ain’t but has his speed diminished sufficiently that getting himself to second is a thing of the past for him.

Shortstop: Jose Reyes is getting all the ink. He had a pre-free agency year last year, worsened somewhat by a tricky hamstring. How many times does a soon-to-be free agent not deliver when his contract is settled. He gets an F in health in Ron Shandler’s Baseball Forecaster and even though he is truly a skillful player, we have to wonder what happens when he is injured as well he might be?

Center Field: The depth chart has Emilio Bonifacio in center field and it is Boni, according to the new manager, who will move to shortstop. The idea is to keep Hanley anchored to third base (note to readers – please take notice of my avoidance of “hot corner.”) That opens the door to whichever scrub (Petersen, Coughlin, Cousins) or non-roster invitee, Rowand, survives baseball’s March Madness. Boni, by the way, is enormously fast and a great base runner, but we have never seen him in a day-to-day role over an extended period in center field. I am confident, however, that he will get to every ball hit within his range.

On the way up the middle, you pass the pitching mound and that has me worried as well. Going into the spring, the top five starters appear to be  J. Johnson; M. Buehrle; R. Nolasco; A. Sanchez and  C. Zambrano.

Johnson: elite-level, high quality, commanding pitcher who is injury prone and has a history of hiding his pain to his and his team’s detriment. He can do 200 innings, but he is more likely to turn in 120-150.

Buehrle: He got a four-year contract at age 33 so we know his agent is glib. I like pitchers with ERAs below 3.50 and he is not one of them. I like pitchers whose HR/9 ratio is below 1.0. His is 0.9. Summing it up, his risk/reward ratio is high enough to make me nervous.

Nolasco: He defines “it depends.” We never know which Ricky is going to show up on any given day. The good Ricky is a joy to watch. The not good Ricky makes you cringe when a good left hand bat comes to the plate.

Sanchez: He is getting better each year and a break out year for him may well convert me to a believer. After all, there may well be an extra wild card available this year.

Zambrano: They say Ozzie will have him under control. Right. Two temperamental Latinos, one keeping the other calm.

I should write a word or two about Heath Bell, the big bullpen addition (6″3″ and 230 pounds.) He is 34 and got a three-year contract so it is clear that the Marlins believe in 37 year old pitchers. He is definitely a quality closer and the team has had a good history of getting a lot of mileage out of the revolving door they have installed on their bullpen. However, usually that occurs in the last year of their contract.

It will not be a Pittsburgh Pirate sort of year, but the Phillies and Braves still look better and the Nationals might well slip ahead of the Marlins. The Marlins will, however, be looking down at the Mets.

It is always fun to watch these two teams play in Florida. The numbers of transplanted New Yorkers can be overwhelming here and the Blue and Orange of the Mets are on garish display on a variety of bodies – some of which ought not to be wearing T-Shirts where other people can see them – whenever the Mets, Jets, Knicks or Rangers are in town.

New Yorkers are a special type of person. Their favorite restaurant is a chain called “There’s Another One” and they are extremely loyal to it. Just tell a New Yorker where you ate last night and the universal response is, “There’s another one.” They refer to their city as The City as in, “I live in Queens, but I got to the City a lot.” And, they are cavalier with the letter “r.” They drop it at the end of a word – water becomes watah – and the insert it before a consonant – oil become earl.

This year, with both the Marlins and the Mets out of contention, the point of the game is to watch the players. Here is my quick rundown of four players on each team:

Mets.

Jose Reyes. He is back from the DL and played like he is on display for a bidding war. He is. One scout sitting in my section predicted that he will sign for 7 years at $15 per year. That is 1,134 regular season games. This scout, who, himself, was a world-class infielder, figures that Reyes will play about 600 of those games.

Lucas Duda. He hit one home run – a Mantle-esque blast that went deep into the right field stands. Other than that, he did not do much but since he isn’t much of a fielder, no one was disappointed. He is largely reduced to left field, which at the moment belongs to Jason Bay.

Carlos Beltran. There were 10 or 11 scouts sitting around me. Half of them picked up their clipboards when Beltran came to bat. He is a quality corner outfielder and he will not be playing in New York next year. The usual suspects are the Giants, Phillies, Braves, Rangers and Red Sox. So, I am wondering what the guy from the Pirates was doing there. If Pittsburgh decides to put their money where their team is, Beltran has to look better to them than Garrett Jones.

Justin Turner. This is the book on him – “Shows plate discipline, hits a lot of doubles, has decent speed and will drive in runs when given the opportunity. He displays a solid glove and the ability to play several infield positions.” I am embarrassed that I have overlooked him – the Marlins could hardly keep him off the base paths.

Marlins

Hanley Ramirez. Do you recognize this plot? — A movie star helps a young singer/actress find fame, even as age and alcoholism send his own career into a downward spiral. Delete the alcoholism and discount the age and you have Hanley. He either hustles (most fans think so) or does not (Jeff Conine thinks not) but one thing is clear – he is playing baseball like a guy who hears them gaining on him. The them are Gaby Sanchez, Logan Morrison and Mike Stanton. All three create more excitement at the plate and Gaby is percentage points away from the best fielding average in MLB. Shopping Hanley would be a smart move.

Emilio Bonifacio – He is having a career year and more than that, he is fun to watch. This week I saw him score from first on a bloop single to center field. He did it because he is always aware of what is happening around him. He saw Reyes handling relay a bit clumsily and he turned on the burners and made it home. He is holding down third base these days which makes the rumored Nunez for Inge trade simply stupid unless the plan is to move Boni to shortstop while moving Hanley elsewhere.

Brian Petersen – Bryan is in a bad place. The corner outfield spots belong to Logan Morrison and Mike Stanton. Center field is too crowded. The aging Mike Cameron, the never-was Dewayne Wise, the aforementioned Bonifacio, the when-healthy Billy Coghlan all make it tough for Petersen to find a place in the starting lineup. He projects as a backup outfielder and he has displayed power from time to time – hitting a lofty .351 in New Orleans. But, sadly, he may be one of those AAAA players, the ones who don’t quite measure up in the bigs. Given the current Marlins, the problem is he will not get a good enough shot to prove otherwise. We have to wonder what we can get for him before Sunday’s trade deadline.

Or Why Baseball Play by Play Men are not Journalists

With Apologies to Dave Van Horn who is Being Inducted into the Hall of Fame tomorrow

If I had any doubts about the relationship between broadcasters and the teams they cover, they were erased this week. We are having summer in South Florida. That means heat and it also means afternoon rain. Often, the rain delays the start of a game and sometimes causes an in-game rain delay. The heat just makes it that much less comfortable to be in the stadium.

You would expect that the announcers, particularly in the pre-game show would ignore the heat and, during the game, would maintain the pretense that there is no rain. Not on Marlins Radio.

En route to the game we were told how hot and sticky it was. During the game we got repeated mentions of the persistent, annoying drizzle and how it was affecting the field adversely.

Here is why. The new stadium being built for the Marlins is decidedly unpopular. But, it will be climate controlled and under a roof. So, by playing up how uncomfortable the current situation is, the team strengthens its case. That is hardly necessary since it is a done deal. But you know the old saying – If it is worth doing, it is worth overdoing.

What we learned or confirmed last night. Hanley Ramirez does not go to his right very well; John Buck is not a good catcher; Bryan Peterson can pitch and the cute little kids who really don’t know what is going on in the field have the best time.

We have been having a lot of rain in South Florida so two nights ago, I ended up leaving in the 5^th or 6^th inning. Last night, I decided not to wait out a rain delay. So, I changed my attend-the-game protocol. I generally arrive early, go up to the club level and have my grilled chicken sandwich and a bottle of water (at Sun Life Stadium tap water in a plastic bottle is $5 in the club level; $6 at the concession stands below and $7 if the waitress takes your order and has it delivered to your seat.

Last night, I decided on caution and said to myself, get there later and wait to eat until after the game. There is likely to be another annoying rain delay and if there is, I am likely to leave early again. The Davie Ale House is only20 minutes from the stadium and they have a lot of TVs.

Good call. We were not soaked by rain from the heavens. Instead, we were deluged by hits from the San Diego bats.

Courtesy of mlb.com, here is the rundown of the first two innings: Their description, my inserted comments.

Top of the First

• Will Venable homers on a fly ball to right field.
• Jason Bartlett walks.
• Cameron Maybin singles on a ground ball to left fielder Logan Morrison. Jason Bartlett to 2nd. (this is an interesting mlb.com usage. The ground ball was not to left fielder Morrison, it was in between shortstop Ramirez and third baseman Bonifacio. Hanley does not go to his right very well and Bonifacio, who can go to his left, keeps hoping Hanley will move.)
• Ryan Ludwick doubles on a line drive to center fielder Mike Cameron. Jason Bartlett scores. Cameron Maybin scores.
• Coaching visit to mound. (that was Rand St. Claire. I don’t know what he does, but he looks good striding to the mound)
• Orlando Hudson grounds out to first baseman Gaby Sanchez. Ryan Ludwick to 3rd. (I did no see this play, I was talking to the scout sitting next to me about what pitching coaches say when they stride to the mound. Obviously, he said, make him hit a ground ball to Gaby.)
• Jesus Guzman singles on a line drive to right fielder Mike Stanton. Ryan Ludwick scores.
• Alberto Gonzalez singles on a line drive to left fielder Logan Morrison. Jesus Guzman to 2nd. (these last two were not line drives, they bounced in the dirt between Ramirez, and Bonifacio who cannot grasp that Hanley does not go to his right.)
• Rob Johnson strikes out swinging.
• Aaron Harang strikes out swinging.

At this point chants of “Yank him, Jack” are raining down from the stands; Jeffrey Loria, the team owner is talking to his body guard – maybe asking him to tell Jack to Yank Him – I am happy that I did not eat anything yet because leaving is becoming something I might do. The cute little girl in the second row is playing with her softball sized blow up beach ball. Her brother is eating french fries.

Bottom of the First

• Emilio Bonifacio grounds out, second baseman Orlando Hudson to first baseman Jesus Guzman. (Guzman’s being there disappoints a noisy group from Coral Springs and Parkland who had come to see Anthony Rizzo play first base for San Diego. Rizzo is a graduate of the local high school and still lives here.)
• Omar Infante lines out to left fielder Ryan Ludwick.
• Logan Morrison grounds out, shortstop Jason Bartlett to first baseman Jesus Guzman.

My waitress has appeared and she is one of the two I like so I order a $7 bottle of tap water in a plastic bottle. They may work on commission.

Top of the Second

• Will Venable singles on a ground ball to center fielder Mike Cameron, deflected by shortstop Hanley Ramirez. (This one was hit to his left and he does make some spectacular plays in that direction. Not this time.)
• Jason Bartlett singles on a ground ball to right fielder Mike Stanton. Will Venable to 2nd.
• Cameron Maybin singles on a line drive to right fielder Mike Stanton. Will Venable scores. Jason Bartlett to 3rd.
• Coaching visit to mound. (that was St. Claire again. This time I knew what he was doing. The bullpen was stretching and Burke Badenhop was beginning to warm up. Randy was out there wasting time.)
• With Orlando Hudson batting, Cameron Maybin steals 2nd base. (This was an interesting peek into Marlin futility. Catcher John Buck had called for a pitchout and then threw high and wide to Omar Infante who managed to keep the ball from sailing into the outfield.
• Ricky Nolasco intentionally walks Orlando Hudson.
• Jesus Guzman doubles on a ground ball to left fielder Logan Morrison. Jason Bartlett scores. Cameron Maybin scores. Orlando Hudson scores. (Yes. Right between the aforementioned Hanly and Emilio)
• Pitcher Change: Burke Badenhop replaces Ricky Nolasco, batting 9th. (Ricky leaves with his head bowed but the classy Marlins fans do not boo. They applaud. I don’t know if they were consoling Nolasco or applauding Jack McKeon for yanking him.)
• Coaching visit to mound. (Checking Badenhop’s pulse. I can think of no other reason.)
• Alberto Gonzalez doubles on a fly ball to left fielder Logan Morrison. Jesus Guzman scores.
• Rob Johnson singles on a ground ball to left fielder Logan Morrison. Alberto Gonzalez to 3rd.
• Aaron Harang (the pitcher) singles on a ground ball to left fielder Logan Morrison. Alberto Gonzalez scores. Rob Johnson to 2nd.
• Will Venable walks. Rob Johnson to 3rd. Aaron Harang to 2nd.
• Jason Bartlett singles on a ground ball to right fielder Mike Stanton. Rob Johnson scores. Aaron Harang to 3rd. Will Venable to 2nd. (a ground ball to right field has nothing to do with Mike Standon or Hanley Ramirez. It was Omar Infante who did not get to it.)

The cute little girl in the second row is asking to go the bathroom. Her brother is eating a hot dog.

Bottom of the Second

• Hanley Ramirez called out on strikes.
• Gaby Sanchez grounds out, second baseman Orlando Hudson to first baseman Jesus Guzman.
• Mike Stanton strikes out swinging.

I stayed until the 6th inning. It was just past 10:00 pm, a time when most games are over. The cute little girl in the second row is asleep. Her brother is eating some cotton candy.

There were highlights for Marlins fans.Badenhop settled down and he and rookie Steve Cishek held the Padres to no more runs (they did score one more off Mike Dunn in the 8^th); Hanley Ramirez hit a home run in the 6^th (I had gone by then); Emilio Bonifacio got a hit and ran his hitting streak to 18 games; and a laugher lineup was created in order to give guys rest – Bonifacio moved to shortstop and Glenn Dobbs took over 3^rd base, outfielder Bryan Peterson pitched; catcher Brett Hayes played right field and Wes Helms who has played third or first base in every one of his 1,000+ games played 2^nd base.

And, so it went.

It is hard to get a sense of what is wrong with the Marlin’s ballpark from where I sit. In the fifth row, looking over the umpire’s shoulder the view is clear; the sight angles are not hidden; and you can actually see the players’ facial expression.

Digression: Did you ever notice what players do when they swing and miss badly? They always step out of the box and walk a few feet away. Then they stare at the barrel of the bat or they adjust their batting gloves. The signal they are sending is that it was not their fault they missed – darn equipment?

So, tonight I wandered around and sat down in a few other sections. Nope, there is nothing really wrong with the seats from first to third and if you sit in either of the far outfields you get what you pay for and it is not bad. I was in Dodger stadium the other night, sitting in far left field and I had to crane my neck to see home plate. The stadium that used to be called Joe Robbie is better because the right and left field walls are shorter. The seats curve in and you get a decent view of the field from out there.

I cannot comment on the upper decks because I would never sit there. I would rather be in a nearby bar with a good TV.

But it is more than the seats. The mood of the place is off. First of all, most seats are empty. I am guessing we had only about six or seven thousand in the ballpark tonight. Only two gates are open, a lot of the concession stands are shuttered, none of the ushers really look warm and friendly (most are, when you get to know them) and you almost never have to wait in the men’s rooms. The mood of the place is old and sort of sad.

On top of that, you can never escape the football that the building was built for. You sit there and you see the great names of the great Dolphins teams displayed on big banners. It is Dan Marino’s stadium, and Don Shula’s stadium. It may be green and the bases are where they should be, but you know this park belongs to the elevens, not the nines.

Digression II: Even if they could, who would the Marlins’ celebrate? Guys who played elsewhere and hang around the team instead of the golf course – Andre Dawson and Tony Perez.? Journeymen who had a cup of coffee here – Jeff Conine and Charlie Hough and Mike Lowell? Or, my own personal hero Jack McKeon, still goes strong at 80 and with the guts and brains to pull a pitcher with a 2-0 count.

They keep shouting about no more rain delays. But you know they have had only 10 rainouts in 10 years, more than half as many as the Red Sox’ 23. Yet they have a point about the rain. Tonight it rained hard enough to annoy us in the stands, but not hard enough to roll out the tarp. That happens a lot.

There are worse places. to watch baseball games. The Oakland A’s play in a concrete bunker that would please only a Nazi architect. The seats in Arlington are modeled after those in airplanes – you really get chummy with the person in the next seat. And the Rays play in a claustrophobic dome where every pop ball looks like it will reach the ceiling. The problem is there are lots better and newer and stadium envy is a disease rampant among team owners.

So, the question is, will the new stadium help and my answer is – not much.

The first year is a slam dunk. People around here like to see and be seen and the place to be next year will be the new stadium. The simply horrible expansion Heat drew big their first year and there is no reason why a young, probably in contention Marlin team will not do at least as well.

But there are buts. Down the road, unless they become perennial contenders they will have problems. By moving to the Orange Bowl site they are doing a risky trade off – the are trading away from seasons ticket holders from Palm Beach County and will likely get a game at a time ticket buyers from Miami-Dade.

So, bottom line. They do need the new stadium. They may have picked the wrong place but a contending team will sell seats.

It feels good to be going to a Marlins game again tomorrow night. First my travel, then theirs, then the All-Star break and now we are both back in town at the same time. Of course, I have seen them on TV a time or two and I did get to both Dodger Stadium and the home of the Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim. So I do have some thoughts to share.

Jack McKeon. He is my hero. To have a full time job at 80? And, be good at it? I like the way he talks to the players. I like the way he is willing to pull a pitcher, even in the middle of the count and I like the way he talks. No bull. Vargas needs to pull up his socks and prove that he is a pitcher. Hanley needs to speed up to first base. Choate has to throw stikes or sit down.

Dewyane Wise and Mike Cameron. If I were in charge I would not be bringing in broken down never was players. I would gamble on the kids. I have liked Bryan Peterson since I saw him in the Arizona Fall League. I know that Peterson is hurt and Coghlan had a setback in his rehab, but I think I would let Dobbs and Helms share 3d base and let Bonifacio play the outfield with Stanton and Morrison. Or, I would take a shot and let 19-year old Christian Yelich have a cup of coffee. From the scouting notes: “Yelich was one of the best high school hitters in last June’s First-Year Player Draft class. Think John Olerud in terms of his swing and approach at the plate. He’s got good speed and the Marlins are letting him use it with a move to left field in full-season ball this season. Either way, the bat should work just fine. “

Emilio Bonifacio. Boy, was I wrong about him. I just never thought he would sustain his season the way he has. His pattern has been hot and cold. Now he is warm and hot. Way to go, Emilio (Just don’t threaten DiMaggio.) I just put in a waiver claim for him in a Strat-o-Matic League just to have a shot at his card for next year.

The Injury List. With Baker, Johnson and Murphy on the 60-day list and Coghlan, Cousins and Webb at 15-days, the list is crowded. I have often wondered two things. Can you attribute a long DL to Spring Training routines? Do some teams abuse the DL as a way of playing roster/waiver games? Just saying that the timing of the Coghlan move – the morning after he was to be shipped to the New Orleans roster and off the $414,000 a year Marlins payroll  seemed coincidental.

JJ. In my opinion, his injury was a major contributor to the June Swoon. If you have a guy of his caliber starting every 5th game, you know that even if you are not playing well, JJ will come in and pick you up and shake off the losing cycle. He missed June and most of us wish we had as well.

Keep Your Eye on. Joshua Morales, a catcher now playing with the short season Jamestown Jammers. He hit for the cycle on Saturday, not an easy thing to do at any level. And his OPS is a world class 1.045. In fact, the first place Jammers have the best record of the entire Marlins farm system. Worst record? The close-to-home-town Jupiter Manatees, cellar dwellers in the Class A Florida State League.

I waited a week to write about my attendance at my first Society of American Baseball Research conference because I wanted to absorb what others had written so as to find out how much of an outlier I am. I am an outlier in some respects but, overall, I am in the herd. It was good.

First, why have I never been before? The answer is I don’t know. I have attended several meetings of my chapter here in South Florida – lovingly overseen by Sam Zygna. I went to the last two (first two, actually) Arizona Fall League events – smoothly operated by Rodney Johnson. So, I am a natural to be one of those guys with ribbons that say 5, 10 and even 20 years affixed to their badges. Instead I got one that said First Time Attendee.

I would have gone last year – I was all signed up and had the hotel booked, etc. – but the Bank of China and a paid gig intervened so I spent the time allotted for the conference in Beijing instead of Atlanta.

But, I got to Long Beach this year and overall it was the right place to be. You have to approach a conference like this across three axes – the people, the content and the structure. I give them A+, A+ and a Gentleman’s C.

The People

I have to give my fellow attendees, the staff and the leadership a sold A+. SABR is an open, friendly, sharing group. No matter where you sat down – lunch, the hotel bar, any meeting room, at the two baseball games we took in – you fell into conversation and it was always about baseball. What a treat to be among about 400 strangers (well 398, I knew one or two from the AFL outings) all of whom like baseball, knew baseball and were willing to swap baseball stories. The slogan could be, “There are No Strangers at a SABR Event.”

The First Time Attendee sticker got me a lot of “welcome to  SABR” greetings and that was cool too. People care about this organization — a strong sign of health.

The Content

Another top score. I took in 4 or 5 presentations each day and 4 of the 5 panels. Now, normally I am not a good listener but I had reviewed presentation proposals and I did serve on the judging committee so, in part, I felt obligated.

Yes, there was one presentation – no reason to call it out – that fell far short; there were at least two where the presents read, looking down the entire time (including one that has been highly rated elsewhere); and more than a few spent more time looking at the screen than at the audience but heck, the research was good; the stories were solid; and no one expected professional orators.

I gave very high marks to Daryl Grigsby’s compelling presentation on the cost to Washington of refusing to sign black players. His demographic analysis was undeniable even if he did not take Northern Virginia into account and he personalized it well. We will never stop visualizing alternate history and his proposed Senator lineup that included Homestead Grays in among the Mickey Vernon’s of the hapless Nats was worth the price of admission.

Vince Gennaro’s work on creating a Starting Pitcher Rating System fascinated me. Admittedly a work in progress, Vince’s grasp on the essentials was well worth my time and clearly expressed the thought he has put into the process. There are some behavioral aspects to rating pitchers – managerial propensity to use a Quick Hook, for example – so no set of metrics will be perfect. But, we were there for ideas and Vince’s were solid.

The panel presentations were terrific and I give high marks to the moderators all of whom obviously had spent time thinking through the subjects and preparing the starter questions. And, high marks to the audience because the question/answer sessions contained a minimum of bloviating and a maximum of well-thought-out, relevant input. Full Disclosure: I popped up a couple of times.

The poster presentations suffered from a jury-riggged presentation venue, but here again, it was clear that dedicated people had spent a good deal of time working out what they wanted to demonstrate.

The panel I missed and would like to have not missed was the closing player panel. I would have liked to have seen my high school classmate Al Ferrara (Lafayette, 1956) and reminded him that Bob Aspromonte was elected Class Athlete and he still owed me $5. It was a newbie mistake – I arrived one day too early and left one day too early. Had I better understood the program I might have stayed for the last day.

The Structure

Not that great. If you give a blank sheet of paper to program committees in eight different cities, you will get eight different structures. And, being the new guy, I have no idea what is traditional, what reflects the culture of an organization, what is locally-driven, and what was new this year.  But, there are some things that I might have done differently.

My headline is that the event is over programmed.

For example, I might have allowed for lunch and dinner breaks. Of course, there was the awards luncheon and ballpark food at the two games but Thursday was nonstop. In order to get lunch, I had to miss a highly-touted and well-reviewed presentation by Steve Steinberg on Horace Fogel and his 1912 era whistle blowing. If you were a zealot of the committee meetings (I was not) dinner was tricky as well, with the meetings ending at 6:30 and the FanGraphs event starting at 7:00.

There was a lot of late-night gobbling at the bar and that is not great for the health of members of an organization whose median age is 59.

There was a nice first timer’s event on Wednesday night, but I missed a broader opening reception – often a staple of other conferences that I have attended over the years. I did not see one of my AFL pals until late on the third day and the absence of an updated registration list meant that I did not know that I was the only member of my chapter present.

There were some backstage issues, some of which were noticeable to those of us in the seats, but this was the year the office moved to Phoenix and the staff was new so those glitches were understandable and overlookable.

About Next Year

If the Lord is willing and the creeks don’t rise, I will be in Minneapolis next year for SABR 42. I guess that is the bottom line. I might even think through a presentation topic.